Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
