Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: hopeful statements are issued from various governments. Immense energy is allocated on containing specific proposals. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from across the border, a capacity enabled by current data. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to counter approaching guided weapons roared overhead – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: several firings targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably supplied through allied countries. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: maybe the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a automatic firearm fired at a drone in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – probably allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: several casualties, devastation and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a reliance that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to fill in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, discussion and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new initiative from Washington follows the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This trend will, no doubt, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame certain parties of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration functions according to a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government presumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from believing that the current condition will not change more in its advantage in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing civilians and areas but preventing a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show specific hesitation to modify developments, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.
